My 2016 Presidential Election: Electoral Map Prediction

As of right now (before either party has announced one single candidate): 196 Dem, 169 R no matter who runs in either party.

173 votes up for grabs.

A strong part of my gut says CO’s 10 votes will go Dem, but I’ll leave it swing for now.

2016 Electoral Prediction

2016 Electoral Prediction

February, 2015 UPDATE – Fine Tuning, But No Changes – Pretty close to Gallup’s take on 2014, although they are looking at all elections, not just POTUS.  I might give NC and IA Red for POTUS, but then I would have to give at least MN Blue.  All 3 stay swing now, but barely.

Gallup analysis of 2014

Gallup analysis of 2014

Start with mine, and make it your own 2016 POTUS election map:

http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bJki#.VJeAXtqYQN0

April 14 UPDATE – The Big Concern? The #BrokenSystem

Red or Blue, I’m more concerned with the #BrokenSystem angle. The Electoral College has outlived any use it may have had. It renders our POTUS elections meaningless to the vast number of Americans, and the candidates respond in kind by kowtowing to those 11 states that even have a remote chance to matter (most them won’t either, as we’ll show).

George Will himself notes the findings of another: that “…since 1992, a majority of states have not been “remotely competitive,” and that “almost two-thirds of the $896 million spent on television” by the two candidates in 2012 was spent in five states…”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/cruz-is-aiming-at-the-wrong-republicans/2015/04/01/87899c0a-d893-11e4-b3f2-607bd612aeac_story.html

May 5 UPDATE – Even with Candidates, Nothing Changes

This new Politico.com map – essentially the same as mine, drawn before either party announced a single candidate – proves we do not have but a the charade of “one person, one vote”. The past several near identical POTUS maps prove we haven’t had anything close for several decades, at least.

UVA's Larry Sabato's Map on Politico

UVA’s Larry Sabato’s Map on Politico

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/2016-predictions-117554.html

Note that the Politico almost perfectly mirrors my Dec 2014 map now that some candidates are known. No contradictions. And how could there realistically be any but minor contradictions? As Politico notes: “in 2000, when 537 votes in Florida elected a president, just 12 states were decided by five points or less. That number contracted to just four states in 2012.”

If that doesn’t point to a #BrokenSystem – EC votes conceptually unchanged (although better defined) with candidates as without – I don’t know what would.

The United States of America Needs a National Popular Vote

National Popular Vote Inc., a 501(c)(4) non-profit, confirms this predetermined Electoral College vote has become a de facto appointment process. Almost none of our 50 states actually matter:

“Analysts Already Say Only 7 or 8 States Will Matter in 2016 Presidential Election
~ Associated Press identifies 7 “Same Old Swing States”
~ Cook Political Report Identifies 8 “Toss-Up” States
~ Politico Says the 7 Battelground States will give you Deja Vu”

Their website, NationalPopularVote.com, details its call for the US to “Reform the Electoral College so that the electoral vote reflects the nationwide popular vote for President.”

August 17 UPDATE – This Story Continues to be Cited…and Buried

The big (and continually buried) story in this article about Hillary’s campaign, and in all similar ones:

Only 85 electoral votes in play for POTUS 2016: Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida.

http://www.politicspa.com/hillarys-2016-game-plan-requires-winning-pennsylvania/68415

May 5, 2016 UPDATE – New Map, Same as the Old Map

CNN has released their 2016 predictive map, now that two front runners look apparent. But nothing of significance has changed.

CNN 2016 Electoral College Map.png

No surprise, their 2016 map mirrors CNN’s own 2012 map almost perfectly…even though there were two “different” candidates.

CNN 2012 Electoral College Map.jpg

Compare CNN’s to my latest, also done this week. Also no change:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

I have OH and FL as toss ups, although if Clinton I give OH to Trump, with TheBern I keep it in play. I have MI as GOP, but I have taken mucho guff for that and acknowledge it has as much chance of going blue as VA does going red.

Other than that, no conflicts with my Dec 2014 map, or mine from the day before Cruz and Kasich dropped out. True Rubio was out at that point, but having him in (or Dem O’Malley for that matter) would not have changed any of my predictions.

November 9, 2016 – Post Election UPDATE

And after over a billion dollars an endless campaign yielded very little change.  See the actual 2016 results:

2016-electoral-college-map

Not one of my states on my Electoral College mapped predictions, as the first image in this blog post, from Dec 2014 when NO candidates were known, was wrong. Not a single one.

After candidates were known, in my May 5, 2015 UPDATE, I had reduced my unknown or ‘swing’ states to just two: Ohio and Florida. I further clarified that if Dems pick Clinton instead of Sanders (as we did) I had OH leaning to Trump.

I missed Wisconsin and (ironically) my home state of Pennsylvania only.

Coincidence, or #BrokenSystem? You be the judge.

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About steventodd

Both parties are broken by big money...what to do? I'm a dad, husband, son, taxpayer, voter, civil engineer, reporter, blogger, rabble-rouser and honest guy.
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